A viable Brexit must meet the LEPP Principles
The speech yesterday by Theresa May in Florence doesn't take us significantly towards a viable Brexit.
In this post I want to offer a short overview of why it is so difficult for anyone, including Theresa May, to identify a viable Brexit.
The difficulties in arriving at a viable Brexit depend on what I call the LEPP Principles.
A viable Brexit must meet four criteria.
A viable Brexit MUST be
Let's look at Theresa May's "Implementation period" which she included in her Florence speech.
The Prime Minister has grasped that without what she calls an "Implementation Period" (and I call an "Interim Withdrawal Agreement") there would be huge economic damage to the UK.
Similarly, something like an Interim Withdrawal Agreement is essential to allow time to create software to implement whatever new Customs arrangements may be agreed. New physical Customs facilities will have to be constructed. There must be some sort of time period between the (potentially immensely detailed substance) of any Withdrawal Agreement being finalised and the date on which it comes into effect.
The problem that the incompetent Theresa May has overlooked is that there are serious legal questions to be asked about whether an "implementation period" is legally possible.
Those who have studied the position papers from the European Union will note that the EU hedges its bets on what is possible with regard to transition provisions.
The phrase "to the extent legally possible" is expressed more than once.
Michel Barnier hasn't yet come to the conclusion that an Interim Withdrawal Period is legally impossible but that's a view I expect him to come to in the next few weeks.
The question of the legality of an Interim Withdrawal Agreement will be included in the "Kill Brexit Now" Judicial Review about which I'll have more to say in future posts.
Meantime, as far as the LEPP Principles go I'll simply point out that what is economically and practically essential (a time period to allow business, Customs authorities etc to make the huge number of adjustments necessary) is legally highly questionable and, in my opinion, is legally impossible.
The LEPP Principles apply to each of thousands of elements of future agreements between the UK and the EU.
There is some wriggle room on whether an agreement meets the second, third and fourth LEPP Principles:
It is the legal failures of the UK Government that I expect to ensure that Theresa May's Brexit will fail.
I expect the United Kingdom to remain a Member State of the European Union on 1st April 2019.
In this post I want to offer a short overview of why it is so difficult for anyone, including Theresa May, to identify a viable Brexit.
The difficulties in arriving at a viable Brexit depend on what I call the LEPP Principles.
A viable Brexit must meet four criteria.
A viable Brexit MUST be
- Legally watertight
- Economically sensible
- Practically achievable
- Politically acceptable
Let's look at Theresa May's "Implementation period" which she included in her Florence speech.
The Prime Minister has grasped that without what she calls an "Implementation Period" (and I call an "Interim Withdrawal Agreement") there would be huge economic damage to the UK.
Similarly, something like an Interim Withdrawal Agreement is essential to allow time to create software to implement whatever new Customs arrangements may be agreed. New physical Customs facilities will have to be constructed. There must be some sort of time period between the (potentially immensely detailed substance) of any Withdrawal Agreement being finalised and the date on which it comes into effect.
The problem that the incompetent Theresa May has overlooked is that there are serious legal questions to be asked about whether an "implementation period" is legally possible.
Those who have studied the position papers from the European Union will note that the EU hedges its bets on what is possible with regard to transition provisions.
The phrase "to the extent legally possible" is expressed more than once.
Michel Barnier hasn't yet come to the conclusion that an Interim Withdrawal Period is legally impossible but that's a view I expect him to come to in the next few weeks.
The question of the legality of an Interim Withdrawal Agreement will be included in the "Kill Brexit Now" Judicial Review about which I'll have more to say in future posts.
Meantime, as far as the LEPP Principles go I'll simply point out that what is economically and practically essential (a time period to allow business, Customs authorities etc to make the huge number of adjustments necessary) is legally highly questionable and, in my opinion, is legally impossible.
The LEPP Principles apply to each of thousands of elements of future agreements between the UK and the EU.
There is some wriggle room on whether an agreement meets the second, third and fourth LEPP Principles:
- Economically sensible
- Practically achievable
- Politically acceptable
It is the legal failures of the UK Government that I expect to ensure that Theresa May's Brexit will fail.
I expect the United Kingdom to remain a Member State of the European Union on 1st April 2019.
Comments
Post a Comment